![]() This political battle will be as hard as the military one once the assault begins. Zelenskyy is also, undoubtedly, walking a fine line during these high-level meets, attempting to temper expectations while being positive enough to ensure continued support. Ukraine has promised it will not target Russian territory, in spite of sensible military reasons for doing so. That is why President Zelenskyy has visited Italy, France, Germany, and Great Britain, in a whirlwind tour to May 15 designed to reassure European leaders of both Ukraine’s capabilities and its intentions. The politics of Ukraine’s offensive run deep. Its primary goals are political as much as they are military because military and political aims are inseparable. In that sense, Ukraine’s offensive is political. But these are military considerations, and as we know from one of the strategy’s most famous clichés, war is a continuation of politics. Ukraine does not have air superiority (Western jets remain a request that has not been fulfilled.) The enemy is well entrenched and expecting an assault. Ukraine does not enjoy the two or three-to-one numerical superiority that most military minds would like before launching an offensive of this scale. From a military perspective, the current situation does not conform to many of the tactical and operational requirements for an offensive. It would be dangerous, however, to overestimate Ukrainian capabilities and raise expectations beyond what is reasonable. Russian morale, on the other hand, seems quite low, exacerbated by ugly (and public) infighting between the Kremlin and the commander of the Wagner mercenaries battling for control of Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces have a great deal of technologically superior equipment and other tangible Western support (including targeting and intelligence.) Their morale is high. ![]() On paper, these preparations look promising. There has been the first use of British- supplied longer-range Storm Shadow missiles by Ukraine.Įight new brigades (about 40,000 troops), some equipped with modern, Leopard and Challenger tanks, and with US Bradley armored fighting vehicles, are ready to support the offensive. Ukraine has in turn targeted infrastructure in the occupied territories, and taken other measures to “shape” the battlefield ahead of the assault. Russian long-range weapons are targeting supplies being prepped for the offensive. Warmer weather has dried mud in the countryside that would have slowed the advance Ukrainian vehicles will now be able to operate cross-country. ![]() In the coming days, everything will be at stake. Setbacks in the field will provide political cover for those in the West who already believe that Ukraine has received enough and that the time has arrived for negotiation and peace involving the sacrifice of large chunks of Ukrainian territory. Unlocking more assistance is unlikely without new successes. In late September, after Ukraine’s first major (highly successful) counter-offensive, the United States announced another $1.1bn in aid. ![]() After Ukraine’s successful counter-offensive at the end of March 2022 drove the Russians back from Irpin and uncovered the atrocities at Bucha, the US authorized another $300m and UAVs. The next week, they received US weapons to counter “ airborne and armored threats”, which was followed with more equipment together totaling $1bn. ![]() In early March 2022, Ukrainians stopped the Russian advance on Kyiv. Ukrainian successes generated further American support. They remember the course of events since February 24, 2022, when no one gave Ukraine’s armed forces a chance against the supposed Russian military behemoth.Īnd they will have in their minds what happened next. Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his aides know this better than anyone. Success will justify further expenditure by the West on Ukraine’s behalf and give its people the belief to keep fighting until concessions are extracted from Moscow. Ukraine must attack, because political imperatives are driving its decision-making. Mid-May is here and with it, the much-anticipated Ukrainian spring counter-offensive seems imminent. ![]()
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